The Orange Smog Index
Forget the swamp - manage the sewer
Flooding The Zone
During an interview with author Michael Lewis in October of 2018, Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist said
“The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit.”1
If we were to think about this type of activity as a crime, Bannon confessed to motive, premeditation, and the desire to cause as much injury as possible.
Trump started implementing the strategy years before announcing his candidacy. He started with the Birtherism campaign which was his training ground. On June 16, 2015, when he announced that he was going to run for President, flooding went operational with immigrants as criminals, the wall, insults, and the constant creation of chaos.
He went pro in 2017. A few of his best tactics
tweet storms during investigations
policy announcements to distract from indictments
outrage layered on outrage layered on….
exhaust everyone
When he left office, any brake that had been present was gone. His strategy coalesced into what I refer to as Orange Smog. His behavior had stopped being about crisis and about environmental contamination and poisoning.
Pollution
Smog, a combination of the words smoke and fog, is a mix of pollutants that, at certain levels, can be very dangerous to breathe. In 1976, to communicate air quality, the EPA developed the Air Quality Index or AQI. The AQI is a rating system on a scale of 0-500 which communicates the level of risk to human health.2 The ranges are as follows:
0–50 Good No risk
51–100 Moderate Acceptable Some risk for sensitive people
101–150 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Asthma, kids, elderly affected
151–200 Unhealthy Everyone affected
201–300 Very Unhealthy Health warnings
301–500 Hazardous Emergency conditions
The Orange Smog Index (OSI)
After reading about the AQI, I realized that we need an Orange Smog Index which can serve as a threat assessment and energy allocation framework. The OSI guiding principles are
Finite Resource Principle - resources are finite (time, attention, energy, money)
Intentional Exhaustion Principle - exhausting resources is a key part of the Trump strategy
Differential Risk Principle - Trump’s words and actions carry different risk profiles
Amplification Cost Principle - if everything treated as an outrage then nothing is
Action Alignment Principle - response intensity must match the threat level and be pre-planned
OSI Ratings
OSI-1: Background Orange Smog - statements designed solely to provoke reactions
Threat Level: None
Examples: insults, names, culture war bait, recycled falsehoods
Intent: attention
Response: None- Ignore publicly
OSI-1 Occurrences
nicknames
grievances
self-pity
OSI -2: Visible Orange Smog - statements intended to redirect attention away from substantive events or failures
Threat Level: Low
Examples: statements that coincide with court filings, legislative action, investigations
Intent: dominate the news cycle
Response: Low - Only noted to redirect attention to what is being obscured
OSI-2 Occurrences:
Performative rallies after losses
Insulting opponents
Tantrum tweets timed to distract from bad news
OSI-3: Policy Orange Smog - statements or actions that signal intent to change policy or governance norms but do not yet execute power
Threat Level: Medium to High
Examples: threats of execution action, testing of institutional boundaries, normalization of harm
Intent: test response
Response: Medium - expert analysis, scenario planning, background briefings, i.e. strategy
OSI-3 Occurrences:
Threats to use Insurrection Act
Promises to purge civil service
“I will be your retribution”
“The press is the enemy of the people”
OSI-4: Institutional Orange Smog - concrete actions that alter institutional behavior, legal posture or enforcement reality
Threat Level: High
Examples: execute orders, DOJ interference, election system manipulation attempts, regulatory capture moves
Response: Coordinated action, legal filings, overt institutional resistance, focused public messaging, litigation, sustained attention
OSI-4 Occurrences:
Muslim Ban (2017)
DOJ political interference
Census manipulation attempt
Ukraine extortion
Federal agency capture
ICE operation (2026)
Trump’s comments about nationalizing elections (2026)
OSI-5: Structural Fire - actions that irreversible damage democratic systems, rule of law or electoral integrity
Threat Level: Extreme; System level failure risk
Examples: attempts to suspend elections, open defiance of court orders, militarization of enforcement, constitutional crisis triggers
Response: All hands, emergency legal, political and civic mobilization, international pressure
OSI-5 Occurrences:
January 6, 2021 attempt to overturn the election
Fake electors scheme
DOJ subversion attempt
Open defiance of court authority
ICE operation in Minnesota
The failure to distinguish between Orange Smog levels is not a messaging problem — it is a governance failure. Treating insults, distractions, and structural threats as interchangeable outrage exhausts finite resources and leaves institutions unprepared when real danger arrives.
The purpose of the Orange Smog Index is not to minimize Trump’s behavior, but to triage it. When everything is treated as an emergency, nothing is. Threats that alter institutions, law enforcement, or electoral systems require pre-planned, coordinated responses — not reactive outrage. Until we learn to assess risk, allocate energy accordingly, and act with discipline, the smog will continue to thicken — and the damage will continue long after the noise fades.
https://link.motherjones.com/public/38181852
https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/
Brilliant. Concise framework. Call to action.